Escalation In The Middle East Appears Imminent
  [Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml 2021/03/02-16:30]

Escalation In The Middle East Appears Imminent

Submitted by SouthFront.org,

Escalation in the Middle East appears imminent, due to various incidents that took place throughout the region.

On February 25th, the Israeli-owned vehicle carrying vessel – MV Helios Ray was rocked by a heavy explosion, but didn’t sink. According to the owner of the vessel, it wasn’t known what had struck the Helios Ray, but likely it was “missiles or a mine placed on the bow.” It took two days of investigation to reach an obvious conclusion – Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that Iran had carried out the attack.

Israeli TV reported that the assessment claimed that the Iranian navy had fired two missiles at the Israeli-flagged ship. Israeli Experts were allegedly on the way to the UAE, where the ship was anchored. There is no confirmation nor denial from Iran, as of yet, but Israel is already using this presumed attack for a potential escalation.

In recent weeks, Tel Aviv has been pushing to form a military security pact with Gulf States against Tehran. While having its interests targeted in the Gulf of Oman, Israel is still carrying out its usual activity towards Syria, and immediately responded to the alleged Iranian aggression.

On February 28th, Syrian air defense forces over Damascus were activated to repel an Israeli attack, launched from above the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli Air Force likely targeted alleged Iranian targets, but Israel provided no comment on the matter.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said Israel was taking action “almost weekly” to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria. However, this is not just any action, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has once again claimed that Israel “was winning the war” against Iran.

Another informal Israeli ally – Saudi Arabia is currently suffering at the hands of the Axis of Resistance.

Yemen’s Ansar Allah – the Houthis – announced that their Air Force had carried out a large-scale operation in the Kingdom on February 28th. The operation, dubbed “Deterrent Balance 5,” targeted military positions in Riyadh. In total, a spokesman for the Houthis, said that a Zulfiqar ballistic missile, nine Samad-3 loitering munitions, and six Qasef-2K drones struck a network of Saudi military positions. This was likely in response to Saudi Arabia’s increased airstrike activity.

A February 28th warplane raid left 5 civilians, including a woman and a child dead. In Yemen, on the ground the fight is continuing in the Marib district.

Marib City and the Dam are currently beyond reach, and Saudi Arabia carries out increasingly more airstrikes and violations of the al-Hudaydah ceasefire. There are heavy clashes between the Ansar Allah and Saudi-led forces in the Talaat al-Hamra, Hamajira and Balaq mountains, with the Houthis purportedly taking the upper hand.

The situation is reaching a critical point, with the Axis of Resistance attempting to push on the US, Israel and their other allies on all fronts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/02/2021 - 03:30
再進場!高盛傳下週重新開放「比特幣期貨交易」,同步探索 ETF 產品潛力
  [Source: 動區 2021/03/02-16:20]

隨著加密貨幣產業逐漸邁向成熟,機構投資人爭相湧入,芝商所、洲際交易所等傳統金融大佬陸續提供加密金融產品,現在連 […]

再進場!高盛傳下週重新開放「比特幣期貨交易」,同步探索 ETF 產品潛力〉這篇文章最早發佈於《動區動趨-最具影響力的區塊鏈媒體 (比特幣, 虛擬貨幣)》。

美债收益率飙升令美联储难再淡定,买长卖短“扭转操作”又要来?
  [Source: Investing.com 2021/03/02-16:18]

2021年3月2日 16:00
美债收益率飙升令美联储难再淡定,买长卖短“扭转操作”又要来?

美联储主席鲍威尔在上周的证词讲话中重申了不会在“可预见的未来”加息这一政策承诺,试图以此来平抑市场的躁动,但却事与愿违。近日以来,美国债市仍然在面临抛售潮,令国债收益率持续全线走高,这似乎正在暗示着,美联储之后除了口头承诺之外,还似乎可能采取更多行动来应对债市的异动。

因而,虽然距离美联储于3月16-17日举行下一次政策会议的会期还有两周时间,但是市场的目光却已经提前开始聚焦。观察人士押注美联储届时至少会在措辞上明确提及当前债市所出现的异动,并不排除再采取针对性行动的可能性。虽然眼下美联储已经将政策利率维持在了零水平,且量化宽松购债力度被设定为无限,并且以当前的状况来看,实施负利率的可能性也微乎其微。但这并不意味着面对美债遭到抛售的局面,美联储就已经黔驴技穷。

预计美联储届时很可能采取的手段是将当年在2011年欧债危机高峰期间动用过的“扭转操作”措施重新启动,通过卖短债买长债的措施来进一步压低长期债券利率,同时,美联储还有贴现利率和隔夜再回购措施,同样可以在必要时祭出使用。知情人士透露,美联储官员正在与一线经纪商进行接洽,以判断是否真的需要进一步介入干预债市。

原因在于,过去两周以来,长期美债收益率持续大幅跳升,已经触及了自2020年初新冠病毒在美国爆发以来的最高水平,虽然,从绝对意义看,债券收益率依旧处于历史低位,但是其上行步伐之快却引发了市场高度担忧。虽然在周一日内债市暂归平静,但在在周二亚州市场开盘后,美债继续遭遇抛压,收益率仍运行于上行轨道中。

在此状况下,美联储唯有采取计划外的新行动,才能帮助平抑5年期及更久期限美债收益率所遭遇的抛压。在“扭转操作”过后,美联储所持有的国债的平均到期期间会变得更久,这是在不进一步扩大资产负债表规模同时,为债市提供额外流动性的通融办法。自去年重启QE以来,美联储资产负债表已经重新扩大到了当前的7.5万亿美元。

美国银行策略师Mark Cabana指出,美联储一旦实施“扭转操作”,将达到一石三鸟的目的,同时抬升短债收益率,压制长债收益率,并在不扩表的同时,推动银行业提高资本充足率,因而这是近乎完美的政策操作选项。她指出,眼下,美联储光靠资产负责继续“扩表”的操作已经无法解决迫在眉睫的难题,而祭出“扭转操作”的目的,也是为了解决“市场失灵”这个问题,并非是对实体经济直接介入干预。

而对于美联储而言,心情可能更加五味杂陈。一方面,美联储确实在一定程度上乐观债市收益率的上行趋势,因为其背后反映的是经济走向复苏的趋势,以及通胀率目标加速走向其2%控制目标的前景。然而,考虑到美国新政府正在强力推行1.9万亿美元的援救新政措施,并料将今年全年的联邦政府赤字水平抬升到至少2.3万亿美元美元,债市收益率过快走强,势必意味着财政融资成本的快速上升和通胀预期的进一步强化。而在通胀抬头的预期下,投资者又会选择对长期国债市场退避三舍,进一步抬升债券收益率,导致自我强化的通胀循环,这或许才是美联储所不希望看到的局面。

因而,美联储去年11月份也已经在会议上探讨过对债券到期期限进行调节,从而向市场挤出更多流动性的选项。此举将无需进一步“扩表”,能够将对市场情绪和未来政策预期的影响降低的最小。至少在美联储看来,其可行性也要远高于诸如“负利率”这样的措施。

但美联储能够动用的非常规宽松措施还不止“扭转操作”这一项,其额外的手段包括将超额准备金利率从0.1%上调0.15%,从而对资金起到吸纳回笼作用。然而,这项措施如果与扭转操作一同推出,其有效性尚有待进一步评估,但如果真到了病急乱投医的时候,美联储仍将不耻于继承尝试其手中一切可用的政策选项。

分析师因此预计,美联储官员可能从本周起,就开始就“扭转操作”放出风声,周四美联储主席鲍威尔出席活动时的讲话因而将尤为受到瞩目,此外其他多位美联储官员本周末“噤声期”开始前的集中讲话也不乏看到。届时,其将如何与市场先行沟通以图先用口头手段修复濒临“失灵”的债券市场,所起到的效果将直接决定其在之后3月17日的会议上会否拿出果断的额外干预行动。一旦届时美联储不再满足于口头干预,而是真到决定深入债市上下其手,那么美元指数将首当其冲重新遭遇当头一棒,进一步深入探底趋势之中。

Infineon to replace Nokia in Euro Stoxx 50
  [Source: MarketWatch.com - MarketPulse 2021/03/02-16:17]

Microchip maker Infineon Technologies is going to replace telecom equipment maker Nokia in the Euro Stoxx 50 , Stoxx said late Monday. The move is effective March 22. Stoxx didn't provide an explanation, but microchip makers have been buoyed by strong demand and a shortage of supplies. In early trade, Nokia slipped 1.3% while Infineon slipped 0.4%.

Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move. Visit MarketWatch.com for more information on this news.

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